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83 resolved · 1 open · 22/83 resolved YES

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US military action against Iran before July? Yes · 100% $29,917,021 No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? No · 0% $23,499,211 Biden drops out of presidential race? Yes · 100% $21,122,390 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? No · 0% $17,625,581 Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? No · 0% $15,865,809 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Yes · 100% $10,906,333 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? No · 0% $8,775,891 Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? Yes · 100% $7,921,692 Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? No · 0% $7,577,896 Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? No · 0% $7,341,787 Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? No · 0% $6,674,832 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? No · 0% $6,660,914 Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Yes · 100% $6,452,293 Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? No · 0% $6,106,878 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? No · 0% $6,008,855 Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Yes · 100% $5,748,305 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? No · 0% $5,412,174 Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? Kamala · 100% $5,279,564 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Yes · 100% $5,244,882 Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? No · 0% $4,993,588 Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? No · 0% $4,881,267 Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? No · 0% $4,617,165 Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? No · 0% $4,569,010 Biden drops out by July 4? No · 0% $4,490,152