Economic Policy

50 resolved · 55 open · 12/50 resolved YES

Open markets

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $9,596,252 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Open $7,992,814 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Open $7,364,340 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Open $5,411,946 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $5,331,597 Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,991,777 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Open $4,953,437 Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,325,523 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Open $4,283,323 Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,251,444 Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,183,540 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Open $3,761,633 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,578,548 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,540,607 Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,323,596 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,076,422 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,036,451 Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,836,433 US recession by end of 2026? Open $2,474,377 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Open $2,440,728 Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Open $2,002,992 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Open $1,387,262 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Open $812,770 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Open $703,200

Resolved markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $235,065,167 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $216,455,743 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $172,972,057 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $161,574,382 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $133,173,605 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $106,767,096 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $101,211,543 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $87,103,284 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $76,909,226 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $75,978,206 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $66,025,384 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $65,311,949 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $56,435,145 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $56,255,119 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $54,634,507 No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $44,523,455 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $43,061,416 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $42,158,279 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $40,497,086 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $37,866,883 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No · 0% $33,434,868 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $31,993,967 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $31,037,182 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $30,934,916