Economic Policy

34 resolved · 57 open · 8/34 resolved YES

Open markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Open $12,743,949 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $11,316,003 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $8,505,214 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $8,492,561 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $7,525,660 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $5,928,813 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,631,756 Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,470,951 Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,778,708 Fed rate hike in 2026? Open $3,665,487 Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,450,338 Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,427,876 Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,744,277 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,682,417 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Open $2,404,661 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,249,008 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,087,534 Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,065,417 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,061,570 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Open $2,028,936 US recession by end of 2026? Open $1,656,026 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Open $1,366,468 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Open $699,949 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Open $527,365

Resolved markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $235,065,167 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $216,455,743 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $172,972,057 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $161,574,382 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $133,173,605 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $106,767,096 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $101,211,543 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $87,103,284 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $76,909,226 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $75,978,206 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $66,025,384 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $65,311,949 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $54,634,507 No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $44,523,455 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $43,061,416 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $37,866,883 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $31,037,182 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $30,934,916 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $24,000,662 Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? No · 0% $23,324,353 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? No · 0% $22,150,915 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $22,089,575 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No · 0% $21,740,489 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $21,653,202