Economic Policy

45 resolved · 121 open · 10/45 resolved YES

Open markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $8,861,076 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $8,859,153 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $6,999,909 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $6,961,636 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Open $6,593,206 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,382,051 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $3,555,882 Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,426,306 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,417,986 Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,732,640 Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,622,233 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Open $2,396,430 Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,340,237 Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,845,047 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,759,367 US recession by end of 2026? Open $1,492,363 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,480,781 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Open $1,359,115 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Open $1,282,107 Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,265,996 Fed rate hike in 2026? Open $1,258,230 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,251,017 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,168,064 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Open $796,029

Resolved markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $235,065,167 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $216,455,743 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $172,972,057 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $161,574,382 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $133,173,605 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $106,767,096 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $101,211,543 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $87,103,284 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $76,909,226 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $75,978,206 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $66,025,384 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $65,311,949 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $54,634,507 No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $44,523,455 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $24,000,662 Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? No · 0% $23,324,353 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? No · 0% $22,150,915 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $22,089,575 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? No · 0% $21,653,202 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? No · 0% $21,544,319 No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $20,629,388 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? No · 0% $17,180,913 No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $17,161,805 US government shutdown by October 1? Yes · 100% $13,491,652