Jerome Powell

76 resolved · 97 open · 10/76 resolved YES

Open markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $18,024,289 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $17,770,743 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $13,722,353 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Open $13,618,166 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Open $12,852,837 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $4,913,058 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $3,958,424 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,927,082 Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,920,469 Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $3,254,697 Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,880,847 Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,770,121 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Open $2,400,178 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,324,885 Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $2,238,872 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,641,769 Fed rate hike in 2026? Open $1,579,718 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Open $1,469,919 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Open $1,451,624 Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,421,497 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,411,716 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Open $1,361,086 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Open $1,296,376 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Open $1,272,686

Resolved markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $235,065,167 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $216,455,743 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $172,972,057 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $161,574,382 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $133,173,605 Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? No · 0% $127,684,065 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $106,767,096 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? No · 0% $102,216,689 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? No · 0% $101,211,543 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? No · 0% $87,103,284 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Yes · 100% $76,909,226 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $75,978,206 No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? No · 0% $67,368,762 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? No · 0% $67,002,489 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $66,025,384 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? No · 0% $65,311,949 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Yes · 100% $59,907,151 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $54,634,507 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? No · 0% $52,589,989 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Yes · 100% $51,626,218 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? No · 0% $49,890,284 No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? No · 0% $46,052,654 No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? No · 0% $44,523,455 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? No · 0% $43,479,262